EasyBaseballBetting.com - May 30, 2008 (3 Picks)
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Baltimore Orioles (132) over Boston Red Sox (1.0 Units) -
These Orioles have been one of those teams playing stellar at home and horrible on the road... so with them playing at home today, we've got to give them a little bit of attention. They are 16-8 at home and 10-18 on the road... The Red Sox are in the same bot, horrible on the road and impressive at home... coupling those two issues, we'd expect the Orioles home field advantage to be stronger than the sportsbooks say... We went against the Dodgers yesterday because Penny was pitching and the sportsbooks were unwilling to move the odds against him as they should. The same is true for Josh Beckett today. Because of his 20 win season last year, he is getting too much respect right now despite the fact that he is 2-4 on the road this season. He already faced the Orioles once this season and was smacked for 5 runs, 11 hits in 5.2 innings. We would like to say that the familiarity would favor Beckett but he faced the Yankees twice and the Devil Rays twice this season and did not do much better in start 2 as he did in start 1.
The Orioles are only 3-7 L10 but it is as we said about the Mets when we bet on them yesterday, teams with fewer than 5 wins L10 can have a heightened home field advantage...
To put our theory to the test, we found that home dogs in the first game of a divisional rivalry game are [36-21, +27 units] over the past 9 seasons if they have fewer than 4 wins L10 and they did not lose their prior series. They improve to [24-12, +20units] if their prior series was a home series... These teams are undervalued by over 40 points on the spread, so we'd expect that these Orioles should really be favorite today.
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Texas Rangers (104) over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) -
Some could argue that these Rangers are overachieving this season but I have also heard others claim that they are underachieving. Basically these Rangers are a team that is not easily quantified at the moment. How else can they be the only baseball team in the top 10 of moneyline records to be a below 500 team? So we believe we've got them at value today at +104.
First of all, these Rangers are going to look to getting back home and taking advantage of this. Home divisional rivalry dogs coming off multiple road series' are +35 units over the past 8 full seasons. That angle has only 1 losing season.
These Athletics are also in a bit of a mess. They were playing well until they finished off their home swing with two consecutive losses in which they scored a combined 1 run... that is not the kind of momentum you are going to want going on the road to play the Rangers.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (155) over St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 Units) -
The Cardinals do have the advantage by being at home and having Wellemeyer's 5-1 record on tap but not at the odds we are seeing here. First, road dogs over 150 are +32 units dating back to the start of last season. Those teams are +85 units the past 8 full seasons (no losing years) if it is the first game of the series and they are coming into the series off a single win.
It is not that these teams are in any particular angle but rather the fact that these teams are consistently undervalued such that betting on them in the long run is a money money play. Our teams are undervalued by even more if the opponent has more than 6 wins L10 like these Cardinals have (undervalued by 20 points).
So these Pirates are just in a classic position to being undervalued and we expect +155 to grow by game time as well.
