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EasyBaseballBetting.com - May 31, 2008
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Texas Rangers (-103) over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) -
I've got the Rangers on tap for you guys again today. We pegged the Orioles and Rangers yesterday as underdogs that really should be favorite. The Orioles took the Red Sox to extra innings but then gave up 3 unearned runs.. that game could have easily gone either way so we are fine to have taken those O's as dogs but we definitely do need some wins to notch onto our belt.
So we are rolling with these Rangers again. The Rangers are the sixth best moneyline team right now and they are only at 500 right now so we know they are consistently being undervalued this season.
The Athletics just cannot seem to score right now and it gives Ponson the PERFECT chance to bounce back from his last start in which he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings against the Devil Rays. More importantly, his last start against the Athletics was a horrible one (May 11) giving up 6 runs in 5.1 innings. So Ponson will be looking for a bounce back game and going up against an A's team that just cannot seem to score is perfect.
Meanwhile, Blanton has not had a single dominant game at all this season and the fact that he's only had 3 road starts this season thus far lend me to wonder whether he may be prone to being blasted. That is certainly a possibilty.
Game 2 teams that won game 1 by more than 1 runs are +40 units dating back to the start of two seasons ago. And if those teams are home teams, they are +83 units dating back to the start of the 2004 season. But if we constrain it down to a smaller sample where our team has won more than 5 games last 10 and the opponent has lost 3+ games in a row, we end up with a system that is +46 units dating back to the start of 1999 season when we began collecting data. Had only one losing season and our team is undervalued by about 13 points.
So we've got the pitching dynamics on our side. We've got the odds on our side. And now we have the systems on our side...
Make this game action on a Ponson vs Blanton matchup.
