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Picks for 8/12/09
Result: +1.00 units
I know we had a loser yesterday but we are still positive units for the month of August and are still 9-6, +4.43 units in our last 15 picks and +16.2 units since the beginning of July.
Seattle Mariners (-130) over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units) -
Despite last night's loss, these Mariners are still very much in the race for the wild card and/or the AL West. It is not going to be an easy stretch run but if they have any chance, they are going to have to win games like today.
1) They have Felix Hernandez on the mound. The M's are 17-6, +9.5 units when he is on the mound.
2) They are coming off a loss. They are 32-21, +12.2 units off a loss. They have a losing record if coming off a win.
3) They are +6 units as a favorite and +9.4 units against non-divisional rivals and interleague opponents.
4) They are +13.6 units in the third game of a series.
Now with all that said, this is the third game of a series tied 1-1. The advantage will tend to go with the winner of the second game due to momentum reasons but the Mariners are different in that they have their ace on the mound and are great off a loss.
They will treat this game as a preparation for the playoffs because not only is it to win this series but also so that they can bring positive momentum with them as they start their series against the hated Yankees.
And if you don't believe me that it matters the Yankees are coming up, check this out. Teams that are in the last game of a series with the Yankees coming up are 25-11, +15.4 units this season.
Looking ahead in baseball has the opposite affect as it does in basketball. In basketball, if you're looking ahead to your next opponent, you will tend to overlook the current one and then just get trashed. Same with football.
But when it comes to baseball, it's different. How many times do you hear a baseball player say something like "we've got to finish this series off well so that we can take some momentum with us into our next series"...
Now you cannot use that tidbit of information and bet it blindly. Like bet all teams that are going to face the Yankees in their next game. But you can use it in conjunction with teams that are looking to prove a point possibly. I don't think the Mariners want to lose today and then get swept by the Yankees like the Red Sox did. They want to compete. They want to prove they should be in the playoffs picture. So today is a critical game for them.
Take this game action on Felix Hernandez pitching. If they were batting against a right handed pitcher, we'd bet this game as a 1.5 or even possibly a 2.0 unit play. The M's just don't do as well against lefties...
