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Picks for 8/13/09
Result: -0.01 units
Although we won yesterday, in some respects it wasn't really worthy of a win. I mean it was not just that our team won by just 1 run but they only scored 1 run in 14 innings, wtf?!?
But it was kind of like what we said in our writeup for yesterday, if they were going up against a righty, we'd be on them for more units. But scoring just 1 run? Come on.
Florida Marlins (-143) over Houston Astros (2.0 Units) -
The Marlins are a nice game of the month play for us today. Why do we like these Marlins?
For us to be willing to bet up a team this high, we need a couple of criteria. First of all, they have to fall under league-wide systems that have proven to win money over the past 10 seasons. Then they have to fall under team specific angles to make it pop.
First, they are facing a lefty today. They average half a run more in games against lefties than they do against righties. And to top it off, they are 22-14, +11 units against lefties. Even better if they hit against a righty the day before.
Even better, the Astros' Hampton is kind of a lame pitcher. The Astros are just 8-13 in his starts this season (3-7, -3.5 units if he's on the road). So with a Marlins team looking to bounce back off a loss will get right back on track today.
And the system we are using is actually pretty simple. It involves betting on a team off a loss if they were on a mini winning streak.. Specifically if they are playing against the same team that just beat them... revenge!
Take this game action on Hampton pitching for the Astros.
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Chicago Cubs (121) over Philadelphia Phillies (1.0 Units) -
The Cubs are not dogs too often but when they are, they've been HORRIBLE!!! HORRIBLE! They are 3-21 this season as a dog. WTF?!? So why are we bothering to take them?
Well, they are at home. They are fighting off a sweep. And they are facing a lefty against whom they are averaging 0.6 runs a game better than righties. So there are some angles to our advantage here that will fly under the radar because of their poor dog record. So we're willing to make our bet based on that.
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Boston Red Sox (-101) over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units) -
The Red Sox should not be at a pickem at home. We understand how hard it is to sweep a team in a 4-game series but the Red Sox are coming off being swept by the Yankees in 4 games. A series against these Tigers is their way to make some games back.
And they are not going to lay down in game 4 just because it is against the Tigers. Nope.
