We only won 1 pick yesterday but we still about broke even thanks to the fact that we bet the winner double units.
We try to bet the better of our plays with an increased number of units because if we feel they've got the best value then we've got to be willing to back that up with more money. And today we've got two plays worth betting extra money.
As we near the end of the baseball season, you're going to start observing some interesting trends. Some teams are going to win like every game. They are the ones playing their hearts out while all the other teams are just riding out the rest of the season wishing it would end. Remember the Rockies of a couple seasons ago that would just never lose? Then there'll be the teams that only come to play when they are in a spoiler role. It is like they hand picked the games they were going to show up. So in the next week or so, we may be picking teams that seem to be going against the grain but we're trying to predict a situation that will most likely win us some money.
Boston Red Sox (-131) over Texas Rangers (2.0 Units) -
Boy were we wrong yesterday in picking these Red Sox. They really did lay down flat in the fourth game of a series against the Tigers. We expected them not to but I guess they forgot they are in a race for the AL Wild Card right now.
But a game against these Rangers should awaken them of this fact. The Rangers are just 1 game behind in the win column so this is a big battle for these two teams. The Rangers have the edge because they are at home but the Red Sox are coming off a shut out loss and have the motivational edge today so we will go with them. We know Millwood has been spectacular for the Rangers but because the Red Sox are 0-2 against him this season, we think the familiarity will help them today.
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Toronto Blue Jays (102) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.5 Units) -
It is easier to handicap games that are a pick'em because it becomes a question of who is more likely to win. When th odds are in the -140 range, you have to determine not just if a team is more likely to win but if they are likely to win at a high enough percentage to cover the -140 spread.
The Blue Jays are looking to play the role of spoiler today against a team that is coming off a very bad road trip. We understand the D'rays are a good home team but for them to reverse fortunes so fast, we don't buy it.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (104) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -
The Diamondbacks are the worst against lefties but we're taking them today because they faced a lefty two days prior. If going Righty then Lefty, they are a horrible 6-19, -15 units. But if going Lefty then Lefty, they are 5-3. Familiarity and getting used to batting against a lefty will suit them well today against Kershaw.
The Dodgers have been struggling lately and these Diamondbacks will seek to play spoiler.
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San Francisco Giants (-121) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) -
The Giants have been struggling offensively but the Giants are in the thick of things in the NL West. They've got Zito on the mound so today is their day to try and turn things around against a Mets team that may be packing it in. They are out of the race. They are struggling to score. And they've just come out of a long road trip on the West Coast. Not sure they are in the right mindset today to face Zito nor win.
