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Picks for 7/2/09
Result: -1.00 units
Another profitable day yesterday. We're convinced our bad fortunes were due to Interleague play being so abnormal today. The more data points we have in our computer models so we hope that it means we'll get better.
Our two day record improves to 5-2. We are going to roll with just one pick today.
Philadelphia Phillies (130) over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units) -
The Phillies-Braves rivalry may not be as brutal as the Yankees-Red Sox but what is.. It may not even be as intense as the Dodgers-Giants but they are still rivals... And one thing rival dogs have an advantage over ordinary dogs is the fact that they are so familiar with their opponents. They have the best scouting reports. They know the stadiums well, the players well. And they have the motivation to play hard regardless of their record.
The Braves score 2 runs more a game against lefties than they do against righties. And they'll be facing their second consecutive lefty today in Happ. That's an issue for us...
But we'll overlook that and bet the Phillies. The key issue here in this game is the fact that the Phillies are looking to bounce back and avoid being swept.
We know they are just 3-7 L10, that's the point on taking them!
The Phillies are the best road moneyline team in baseball and the Braves are bottom 5 of all home moneyline teams. And their pitcher today Vazquez is the majority reason why. They are 3-6 in hihs 9 home starts and have gone -5.5 units. In fact, they are -8.5 units when he's a favorite!
So Javier Vazquez is the perfect dude to go against at a spot in time where the Phillies want to win so badly.
Road divisional rival teams down 2-0 in a 3-game series have only had 1 losing season the past 7 seasons if they have a better than 50% road record and fewer than 5 wins L10.
There's no value in betting those teams if they had won 5+ games L10. I guess because they don't have the sense of urgency to win the games.
Anyways, take this game action on Vazquez pitching. And if your book doesn't allow you, who cares. We'll take the Phillies with the +130 value.
