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Picks for 7/3/09
Result: +2.31 units
Atlanta Braves (-127) over Washington Nationals (3.0 Units) - We have basically called this Braves game our Game of the Year. The Braves just swept the Phillies at home and throughout that whole series, they were able to hold the Phillies to just 7 runs in 3 games.
With that said, these Braves will have a great deal of confidence coming into today's game. They will be facing their third consecutive lefty and because they average about 2 more runs a game against lefties than they do against righties, we'd expect them to do quite well offensively.
The Nationals are a league's worst 5-20 in the first game of a series and they have to play today on the back of being swept on the road by the Marlins. The only good thing today is the fact that the Nationals have had a day of rest but because they are so horrible in the first game of a series, we don't expect that day off will do them much good.
These Braves are a steal at -127 considering they get to face a lefty, are fighting a team so poor in Game 1's, are off a sweep and facing a team that was swept.
Here's a system for you to gobble on. Road teams off a sweep and facing a team that was swept is [21-14, +9.7 units] if they swept a divisional rival. That issue is a key. If the team they swept was NOT a divisional rival, they would have gone [24-31, -7.7 units]. This is why we know it works... because you toggle one little detail and you wind up with completely different results.
And the reason is kind of simple. It is incredibly tough for a team to sweep their divisional rival... that was why we bet against these Braves yesterday. But for them to do so just proves they are such a great bet now.
Take this game action regardless of pitcher.
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San Diego Padres (124) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) - We tend to almost always bet on the Padres as a dog against the Dodgers, specifically if they are at home. The Dodgers are 49-40, +9 units against the Dodgers the past 11 seasons at home. But you know what? They are even better as a dog! Going 24-16, +14 units, and undervalued by about 35 points. I guess you could say that this team brings their best games as a dog.
There's nothing special about the Padres today. Yucky! But the Dodgers are in an offensive slump, averaging less than 2 runs a game L5.
But the thing about this game is that because Manny is expected back, you're going to get too much money on the Dodgers that shouldn't be the case. The Padres have proven that they bring their A game against their rivals to the north. So we're going to bet these Padres.
Take this game action regardless of pitcher.
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New York Mets (131) over Philadelphia Phillies (1.0 Units) - First of all, these Mets love Game 1's. They are 17-9 in the first game of a series which is contrasted with being 7-15 in the third game of a series. So if you are betting baseball and not looking at these figures, then there is a problem.
Anyways, so just as we said that the Braves were at an advantage for having swept a divisional rival, these Phillies are at a disadvantage today for having been swept.
The other thing is that these Phillies are worse at home than on the road. So them being such a favorite is wrong.
Favorites of more than -125 coming off of being swept by a divisional rival is [69-51, -12 units] and overvalued by about 10 points. These teams are overvalued by even more (15 points) when facing a divisional rival.
Since these Mets are so good in the first game of a series, we'll take them at +131 without blinking an eye!
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Chicago White Sox (131) over Kansas City Royals (1.0 Units) -
The Royals are heavily favored today because they have Greinke on the mound and they are at home. Despite the fact that the Royals are 10-6 when he pitches, they are still just +1 units in those 16 games. So that's a wash. And the White Sox being on the road, who cares. They have a better road record than the Royals have a home record AND their pitcher Danks is better on the road. The White Sox are 5-2 in his road starts while just 3-5 in his home starts. And these White Sox are the second best team Moneyline on the road.
Lastly, these Royals can't score. They scored just 1 run in each of their past 3 games.
So we'll take the White Sox as big dogs anytime. Take this game action regardless of pitcher.
