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Picks for 7/4/09
Result: -1.28 units
Boston Red Sox (-214) over Seattle Mariners (2.0 Units) - The Red Sox have played 3 in 3 consecutive one-run games but they had only won 1 of those games. Today, they will be facing a lefty and they love hitting lefties. They average 6 runs a game versus lefties, more than 1 run beyond righties.
The main reason we are willing to lay this much on the Red Sox is because the Red Sox are 6-1 when Penny pitches at home.
Basically the systems model we are using is betting on major favorites in the second game of a series if they lost the first game, are playing at home with a homer pitcher. They'll be looking to avenge their loss in the first game and bounce back.
Now, their facing a lefty today is icing on the cake.
Take this game action on Penny and Olson pitching.
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New York Yankees (120) over Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 Units) -
The Yankees are dogs at home today because they are going up against Halladay. But this is a mistake. Too much emphasis is being placed on his pitching. First, the Blue Jays are only averaging 2.6 runs a game L5. So even if Halladay pitches a great game, there's no guarantee the Jays offense will back him up.
Second, the Yankees are kicking butt having won 8 of 10 games.
We understand that the Yankees tend to be overvalued in general but when they are a home dog, they are +9 units the past 8 seasons (18-14). But even better if playing against divisional rival. It does not happen often over the past 8 seasons, but tey are 12-7, +9.2 units.
So we'll take the Yankees at home knowing they are value.
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San Diego Padres (133) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -
For much of the same reasons we liked the Padres yesterday, we'll bet on them again today. The Dodgers were able to win in Manny's first game back. A lot of it could have been attributed to the fact that the Padres are slow to start their series'. They are just 9-17 in the first game of a series while are about 500 the rest of the way through.
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San Francisco Giants (-201) over Houston Astros (1.0 Units) - We don't like to lay this much when betting baseball but here's the deal. Teams that score double digits and shut out their opponents in the prior game is 31-7, +18 units dating back to the beginning of 10 seasons ago if they are favorites of more than -150... with only one losing season. In fact, it is 9-0 in the past 3 yearrs and 12-1 in the past 4 years.
The Giants are on a roll and we think they will extend that today.
Take this game action on Lincecum pitching.
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Chicago White Sox (-119) over Kansas City Royals (1.0 Units) -
The Royals have only scored 3 runs in their past 4 games. And we also know they get worse as a series goes on. They are 23-28 in the first 2 games of a series but are 6-16 in the third game of a series. So with this being game 3 and them not being able to score the past couple of games, we'll bet against them without having to think about it much.
