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Picks for 7/5/09

Result: -2.02 units

Houston Astros (-104) over San Francisco Giants (1.0 Units) -

There was a 31-7, +18 units systems yesterday that said to go for the Giants because they won the first game by double digits. But now that they've won the game, the tied has turned towards the Astros.

Teams that were shut out in the first two games of a series bounce back in the third game with a vengeance... but only if they are not huge dogs. When they are favorite or a dog of less than 130, these teams are 16-6, +11 units... with only 1 losing season.

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San Diego Padres (150) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) - The Padres are always a good value as a home dog against these Dodgers. And for the same reason we took them in Games 1 and 2, we'll take them today.

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Chicago White Sox (109) over Kansas City Royals (1.0 Units) - Despite losing yesterday, the White Sox are still the team on an offensive roll. Just one game does not reverse the fortunes of these Royals. And so we'll take the White Sox for pretty much the same reasons as we took them yesterday.

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Colorado Rockies (-104) over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) -

The Rockies play about the same at home as they do on the road... but their pitcher today is a total homer pitcher. Whe pitches at home, the Rockies are 4-2 but are a paltry 2-8 when he pitches on the road.

Since this series is tied 1-1, we know that the winner of this game wins the series. And the advantage will undoubtedly go to the home team if they have a homer pitcher but mostly if their odds are not already inflated because they are at home. And since these Rockies do not have the greatest of records at home, we know their odds are not inflated today.