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Picks for 7/7/09
Result: +1.30 units
St. Louis Cardinals (+130) over Milwaukee Brewers (1.0 Units) -
We like these Cardinals as dogs today. While the Cardinals won their series against the Reds in convincing fashion, the Brewers lost 3 of 4 games to the Cubbies. The Brewers offense is struggling. The statistics on them would be far worse had they not put up 11 runs on Independence day.
Now lacking offense does not bode well when you go up against Wainwright. The Cardinals are 6-1 when he pitches on the road and are 4-0 when he pitches as an underdog.
The Brewers have been very good moneyline on plenty of situations. They are 22-13, +9 units against divisional rivals. They are 25-15, +4.68 units as a favorite. They are 11-4, +6.5 units off a loss heading into the first game of a series and 17-9, +8 units in the first game of a series overall. So they'll get a lot of love for that. But much of their unit gains came early in the season. For example, before June 1 they were [30-19, +11.6 units]. And after that, they are [13-19, -7 units]. So season statistics with these Brewers shouldn't be followed to a T.
Take this game action on Wainwright pitching.
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NO PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers (-134) vs New York Mets (1.0 Units) -
The Dodgers have won each of Kershaw's past 4 starts so he's on a bit of a roll. And when you consider these Mets were just swept in large part due to poor offense, we are comfortable to think the Dodgers and Kershaw would extend their good fortunes.
But the Mets fall into a very good bounceback angle. If a team is swept and averaged fewer than 2 runs a game in that series, they will bounceback if they are coming back in the first game of the next series as a home dog. These teams are [30-30, +9 units]. And considering the Mets are at their best in the first game of a series [17-10] as contrasted with the final 2 games of a series [8-17], you'd think the Mets would also have a chance to bounce back.
We'll skip on betting this game because we know how good the Dodgers are.
