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Picks for 7/10/09
Result: -2.02 units
Baltimore Orioles (-104) over Toronto Blue Jays (1.0 Units) -
The Blue Jays got swept and are only 2-8 L10 coming into this game. But we make this bet on the backs of the Orioles. Whenever a team finishes off some type of a road trip successfully, they will continue to play well if they head home. It is kind of intuitive. The Orioles are just 2-6 with Berken on the mound but one of those wins was actually against the Blue Jays. But we don't care too much about that since at home he's been about average.
So the system we are using is this. Betting on a home team off of two or more consecutive road wins in which they averaged 6 or more runs is 36-17, +14 units if playing a team that just got swept.
One last item to note is that these Orioles play much better in the beginning of a series than they do at the back end of a series.
Take this game action regardless of pitcher.
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Cleveland Indians (140) over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units) -
The Tigers are the kind of team that should be bet against early on in a series. They are 27-26 in the first two games of a series. But are 18-8 in the third and fourth games. I guess they are still respectable early in a series but when odds are generated based on full season performance, we have to try to get every edge over the sportsbooks that we can. And since how the Tigers do in Games 1s and 2s are not widely known or publicized or used as betting methodologies, we're getting a lot of value here in fading them.
The Indians are a paltry 6-21 in Game 2s so we'll avoid them tomorrow. That leaves today as the only day to really use these angles as a reasoning for betting the Indians.
The Tigers should win this game but we feel that we have value today.
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Today's Premium System Plays
* Orioles falls into the following premium systems: DJ, Y
* Indians falls into the following premium systems: CT
