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Picks for 7/16/09
Result: +0.34 units
Favorites tend to be overvalued after the All Star break because of the fact that there is so much attention to baseball right now. And these favorites will get even more overvalued as baseball starts to get cross-over betting from football only bettors. But it does not hold true for EVERY game or else you would just pick and bet on every dog, wouldn't you?
We've isolated 4 teams that we feel would most likely bang the books as a divisional rival dog. You can kind of throw out the systems for a moment today because the All Star break makes them obsolete for a second. I mean does it really matter if a team is off a win or a loss? Does it matter if a team scored double digits in their prior game as a sign of momentum? Nope.
The website still tracks this today because I did not implement a function that ignores teams the day after the All Star break. So the table we send out with this mailing list will also have these plays that many should be ignored. So instead look at the premium picks for you today and then consider signing up for our free month of service offer.
Take all of these games action regardless of pitcher, something we tend to do when betting dogs.
Philadelphia Phillies (114) over Florida Marlins (1.0 Units) - The Phillies are 15-6, +10.9 units when they fall into the free systems picks on our website. This tends to reflect on those teams on a mission. Teams that take each game seriously, bounceback when they are expected to and continue their momentum when they are expected to. As winners of the World Series last year, we think they will look to finish out the 2nd half of the baseball season on a tear.
They headed into the All Star break scoring runs like crazy, averaging 6.6 runs a game L10, winners of 5 straight, 9-1L10. So we see them as a dog today?
We know that they are on the road but the Phillies are 26-15 on the road this season and by far the best ML road team.
San Diego Padres (117) over Colorado Rockies (1.0 Units) - The Padres are home dogs against a divisional rival? Too many bettors are going to focus on the fact that they are 36-52 on the season and they are going up against Cook who is 8-3 on the season. But the Padres are still 23-20 at home! We've tended to make a pretty penny over the years betting on home teams with very poor overall records but decent home records. This is because these teams are almost always undervalued when they play at home because their poor record overshadows all logic in the gamblers' eyes. With that said, the Padres are +2.5 units at home and -12 units on the road.
If we are going to mention how much better the Padres are at home as opposed to how they are on the road, then it is fair to say that the Rockies are +8 units on the road. But they suck against divsional rivals. A 13-21 record and going -10.5 units. And since we are making this bet based on the fact that the Padres are a home dog in a divisional rivalry game, we like the Padres with the value.
Besides, Cook may be 8-3 this season but the Rockies are only 500 in his starts.
New York Mets (166) over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units) - The Mets are 11-8 as a dog against these Braves dating back to the beginning of three seasons ago. Now we bring that up because this is probably the most controversial of all our picks today. But come on, they are at +166 today. And we feel with their recent record against the Braves, there's value in taking them.
Los Angeles Angels (120) over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) - There is no doubt the Angels and Athletics are rivals. And the Angels don't like being dogs. The past 5 seasons, these Angels are +17 units as a divisional rival dog. +6 of those are against the Athletics. The Angels have something to prove.. that they are still the best in the AL West. With the Rangers and Mariners bunched up on them, they will have to beat the whipping boy of the division Athletics to exert dominance.
The Angels have not been doing good against divisional rivals this season so we expect that to factor into their better preparedness today. Besides, they are good in game 1's this season a sign that they are prepared. And with the long break, we think they will be ready.
