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Picks for 7/17/09

Result: +1.80 units

Yesterday's results
Phillies +114 WINNER
Padres +117 LOSER
Mets +166 LOSER
Angels +120 WINNER
Results: +0.34 units

We went 2-2 yesterday and in most sports, we'd have lost on the juice. But because we are betting baseball, specifically dogs, that means we had a winning day!

In fact, if you only pick dogs, you'd always win money if you win half your bets. So in a day that we picked 4 dogs, we would expect to win only 1 or 2 of our bets.

Our goal is not to come out positive in each of the days we make bets but to be betting on teams that have value every day. Because if we bet on teams with 10 points of value everytime and we make 3 bets a day. After about 3 months, we'll have gone up 27 units. So what we try to do is bet on teams we feel have about 15-20 points of value. We don't expect to be spot on so even if we are off a little bit, at least those picks would still have about 10 points of value.

Our higher valued picks are bet on with more units. And that is the case with today's pick that we are pegging as a 1.5 unit play... which we label as Game of the Week.

Boston Red Sox (120) over Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 Units) -

We like the Red Sox as a dog in a divisional rivalry game in almost every opportunity we get to bet them as such. But what makes them a bit more potent than most underdogs is the fact that they hit lefties well. They are averaging 5.7 runs a game this season when hitting lefties. And they excel in divisional rivalry games. They are 22-9, +12 units. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are the worst against divisional rivals. They are 9-19, -12 units. With that said, these Red Sox are going to be value if pegged as a dog against the Blue Jays. And with the time off because of the All Star break, we'll give the edge to the talented Red Sox to pick up where things left off.