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Picks for 7/19/09
Result: -0.66 units
After going 2-0 yesterday, we are now 5-2, +4.14 units since the All Star break.
Los Angeles Angels (-115) over Oakland Athletics (1.5 Units) - We are 2-0 picking these Angels in this series and we have decided to take them again today. Why do we like betting on the Angels, specifically against the Athletics?
The logic remains the same as what we had said about the prior games. The Angels poor divisional rivalry record will compell them to play their hearts out in these major games if they intend to contend for the AL West title. And because these Athletics are the worst of all AL West teams, we expect the Angels to making whooping boys of them every chance they get.
This is the fourth game of the series today... And the Angels are 20-8 in the backend of a series (3rd and 4th games). We've measured statistically that the home field advantage gets weakers as a series progresses, so we expect the Angels to benefit from that. But you know, these A's are reeling. Their 4 errors yesterday is a bad sign for any team, let alone a team playing at home about to be completely knocked out of any chances for baseball postseason.
With all that said, these Angels are a good 1.5 unit play as a small favorite today.
Florida Marlins (116) over Philadelphia Phillies (1.0 Units) - The Marlins are [19-12, +9 units] against divisional rivals and are [17-26, -12.2 units] against non divisional rivals. That is a flip of over 20 units. So it is quite evident that these Marlins are the ultimate team to bet on if they are playing a divsional rival.
With yesterday's game being postponed, this has turned into a 3-game series in which the Marlins are fighting off being swept.
Milwaukee Brewers (-118) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) - We tend to avoid divisional rival favorites but these Brewers are [25-16, +9 units] against divisional rivals. These Brewers are also better ML on the road and as a favorite.
The Reds are [16-22, -4.7 units] if facing a pitcher of the opposite orientation as the game before. They are 27-24 when facing a pitcher of the same orientation as the game prior. With them facing a lefty yesterday and a righty today, we expect the Reds to struggle offensively.
The Reds' past two games have not been filled with a lot of scoring.
