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Picks for 7/21/09

Result: +1.00 units

We are [7-4, +4.5 units] since the All Star Break.

Detroit Tigers (-151) over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) -

We pride ourselves in betting dogs, even small favorites... so what are we doing laying the juice on a team that is -151?

Well, these Tigers are in a very motivated bounceback situation.

They were held to just 5 points in their entire series against the Yankees. And they got swept.

Now this will be their first home series since the All Star break and rest assured, the Tigers are not going to waste any time to get back on track.

The Tigers are in the AL Central lead but it is a lead that has shrunk to just 1 game. The Mariners are in the hunt for the NL West, as they are just 4 games out.

Both teams are in the playoffs hunt so neither team will necessarily lay down but with the Tigers in such a motivated position, looking to back on track at home where they are 27-13 this season, it seems quite easy to make this bet.

These Tigers are also +7 units against lefties on the season, +11 units at home.

The Mariners have consistently been undervalued all season long. No matter what the angle is, they have pretty much been positive units all season long. But one angle that they have not done well this season has been off a win. THey are 22-26, -3 units off a win but are 26-17, +10 units off a loss. This dichotomy suggests the team is not very well able to keep their positive momentum going for a long stretch of time. And with the Tigers in a motivational angle, bounceback angle, and going up against lefty angle, they'll be running into another brick wall today and win streak will end at 3.

Also, if they enter the first game of a series off a win, they are 5-11 but are 9-4 if they enter the first game of a series off a loss. Somebody needs to teach this team focus.

But what that really teaches us is this. For all these systems that tell us to go for teams off a win, or having 6+ wins L10, or averaging more than X runs a game over a certain stretch of time is really actually meaningless with respect to the Mariners. So it does not bother us that they have won 3 straight games on the road.

Another item we like is the fact that the Tigers are 5-2 when Porcello pitches at home, 8-3 when he pitches as a favorite. All signs point to these Tigers really deserving to be about -200. The value is there to be a higher rated play but we don't want to risk too much money so we'll leave this play as a 1 unit pick.

Take this game action on Porcello pitching.

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Ebook Picks

Royals falls into the following premium systems: CG