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Picks for 7/22/09
Result: +2.07 units
Another winner yesterday with the Tigers. We are now 8-4, +5.46 units since the All Star break. Even though the Mariners fell into some of the free systems on our website, the fact that they have done so poorly this season off a win was explanation enough to justify going against them and those systems.
The Tigers sure got off to a fast start yesterday by scoring 8 runs in the first two innings. And it was just as we predicted. We expected them to try to get back on the right track at home in a hurry.
Atlanta Braves (-114) over San Francisco Giants (1.0 Units) -
The Braves are [13-9, +5.4 units] when they fall into the free systems picks on our website. That means they are the perfect team to consider when the systems as a whole tell us to go for them.
What systems do is predict teams with a whole lot of momentum and/or teams in a perfect bounceback angle. And these Braves have a lot of momentum. They are scoring a bunch of runs over the prior 3 games and they happen to be one of baseball's hotter teams right now. So we can pretty much throw away all of their full season statistics.
The Giants offense is sputtering right now. So no matter who they have on the mound, it kind of does not matter because they might not be able to score enough runs to ensure their pitcher gets a win.
Lincecum has been a favorite all season in each of his 19 starts. We don't know how he will do as a dog but we are willing to find out while betting on the hot home team.
The Braves are 9-5 when Jurrjens starts and is a favorite but 1-5 if he starts as a dog. So we like them with Jurrjens on the mound.
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Houston Astros (107) over St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 Units) -
The Astros are looking for a sweep today. It is tough to sweep a team in 4 games but actually not so hard to do so in 3 games. With the Astros scoring double digits yesterday and playing this game as a dog, we like the value we see them today.
This is kind of expected to be a pitchers duel. Carpenter vs Oswalt. But Carpenter is not very good on the road. These Cardinals are 4-5 when Carpenter starts on the road... and an improved 4-1 when he starts at home. The Cardinals would have been smart if they tried to tweak with their rotation such that he gets more home starts.
But nevertheless, the Astros have value today because they are at home, a dog, off scoring double digits, and against a hated divisional rival.
Kind of an easy play to make. Take this game action on Oswalt starting for the Astros.
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