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Picks for 7/24/09

Result: +8.25 units

We lost our pick with the Tigers yesterday... When you bet a team you expect to bounce back, sometimes they don't. And they fall flat just as these Tigers did. They had it in them to win game 1 of this series but not to pull out the series win. We would rather avoid a team that is expected to bounceback and put all their effort in too many games too close together but these Tigers are fighting for the AL Central lead, we expected them to be a bit different.

Anyways, so with today's loss, these Tigers are now tied in first place.

After an entire week of just picking 1-2 games a day, we've got several games today. And we'll do our best to explain the reasons to bet each game.

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Los Angeles Angels (-143) over Minnesota Twins (2.0 Units) -

We've decided to peg this Angels game as our game of the month.. Because at -143, we think they are undervalued. If the odds on this game, push up to about -165 or -170 then just bet 1.0 unit. We have our limits.

Nevertheless, we love the fact that the Angels won in walk off fashion yesterday. There's nothing like winning in walk off fashion at home and then playing again your next game at home.

They are at such a huge motivational, inspirational, momentum advantage over the Twins that it is ridiculous. The Twins are not a very good road team so we don't expect them to really bounceback.

The Angels just keep winning right now and it helps that they are 17-10 against lefties. Makes this game easy to bet on.

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Texas Rangers (136) over Kansas City Royals (1.5 Units) -

The Rangers are coming into this game off of 4 straight wins and it does not look like the Royals can buy a win to save their lives. And after his fantastic start to the season, Greinke has been overvalued in practically every game he's recently pitched in. That means the Rangers are clearly the team to bet on here.

The Royals have lost 8 of Greinke's last 10 starts. They are not a very great home team. So the value today lies in these Rangers.

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Boston Red Sox (-150) over Baltimore Orioles (1.0 Units) -

The Red Sox are in a prime bounce back position. After struggling on the road against the Rangers and Blue Jays, they come back home to where they are 31-14.

Five straight losses has taken them out of first place.

We expect them to take advantage of being at home and win today in convincing fashion. The Orioles are themselves not playing well anyways. They got swept by the Yankees and are a horrible 15-32 road team. So the Red Sox come back home and reverse fortunes with an easy Fenway Park win.

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San Francisco Giants (107) over Colorado Rockies (1.0 Units) -

The Giants are 14-5 with Cain pitching... and they are divisional rival dogs today. 'nuff said. Take this game action on Cain pitching.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (-104) over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) - The Diamondbacks don't deserve to be -104 today. They are 5-15, -12 units when facing a lefty after a righty. The D'backs offense went off for 11 runs yesterday but there's that saying "save some for tomorrow" and we feel the D'backs will hit a brick wall today. Take this game action on lefty Duke pitching.

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Houston Astros (114) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) - The Mets' Santana is getting a bit too much love today. The Mets are just 4-5 with him pitching on the road this season. Factor in the Astros sweeping their big rival in the Cardinals and you've got yourself a case for a home team undervalued.

The Mets are also no good on the road neither. Another easy play to make.


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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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