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Picks for 7/25/09

Result: +1.50 units

First, I'd like to say that our systems told us to go for the Yankees. But they are priced a bit too high. At -250, they would have to win about 72% of the time... or win like 116 games a season.

The Yankees have won 8 straight games and these A's are pretty much out of it. We said that once they were out of playoff contention that they'd be a great team to fade. I think if it were any other team, we'd be betting against the A's today. But because it is the Yankees, we will pass. First of all, too much betting action will be placed on the Yankees and that's why the moneyline is at -250. Secondly, regardless of the team, playing against the Yankees will likely bring out your best. It is like going against the Lakers.

If my hypothesis is true, then the Yankees would be a great team to fade as a large favorite. We're right. Going back 10 seasons, the Yankees are -65 units as a -200 favorite or more... overvalued by about 15 points.

These Yankees are just as overvalued at this price when playing non-divisional rivals as they are playing divisional rivals. So the Yankees are a team you are going to have to pass on.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-164) over Florida Marlins (1.5 Units) -

The Dodgers are pretty high priced today but we love them. The Dodgers are 22-9, +13.5 units when they fall into one of the free systems picks on our website. This means they are the perfect team to bet on when they've either got the momentum on their side or are looking to bounce back. These Dodgers are coming off a loss today. They are great off a loss.. If they are off a loss, they are 24-10 this season. And off of two or more consecutive losses, they are a cool 10-0.

Having lost yesterday to the Marlins, they are primed to bounce back. We are going this approach based on several systems that state you must go for a team that had a 5+ game winning streak snapped by a loss against a team they have revenge with.

The Marlins are actually pretty good against lefties. They are 6 games above 500 vs lefties but are 5 games below 500 against righties so it does not really surprise us that they won against a lefty yesterday. But today they are facing a righty.

So the Dodgers will be looking to bounce back. And we expect the Marlins offense to sputter a little bit.