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Picks for 7/26/09
Result: +1.27 units
Detroit Tigers (-142) over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units) -
We bet the Tigers on the 23rd and lost that game. Our assumption was that this Tigers team would have come motivated in that game to not only win that series against the Mariners but take back control of the division. It did not happen. But in today's series against the White Sox, they are currently 3-0.
Here's the thing about this game, the White Sox get worse as a series progresses forward.
In the first two games of a series, these White Sox are 36-25, +13.5 units but they are a lowly 12-21, -10.3 units in the second half of a series. Today's game falls into that category.
So considering these Tigers ended the last series in a desperate attempt to regain control of the division but could not, and have now gone 3-0 in this series against the White Sox, do you think they will let up in the fourth game against a team that gets worse as a series progresses?
The Tigers are just not scoring many runs.... But they may get a shift in modes today as they face a lefty. They are 18-12, +7 units against lefties, but are just +0.5 units against righties. So their offense has some upside today.
These White Sox really aren't scoring many runs these days either. The Tigers have Porcello on the mound and these Tigers are 6-2 when he pitches at home. So the White Sox have some downside.
We like the Tigers pick at -142 for just one unit but the game needs to be action on a Porcello and a Richard pitching matchup.
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Baltimore Orioles (167) over Boston Red Sox (1.0 Units) -
Haven't bettors learned their lesson from betting up Smoltz like crazy? The Red Sox are a lowly 1-4, -5 units when Smoltz starts a game this season. So unless we see some improvement from this dude, we'll just continue to fade him. These Orioles are a divisional rival dog and they can smell meat. This is their oppportunity to get a game on the divisional foe by taking advantage of a struggling pitcher.
Take this game action on Smoltz pitching.
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Atlanta Braves (-115) over Milwaukee Brewers (1.0 Units) -
In betting this game, we're really just utilizing a really simple betting system that involves taking teams with 6+ wins L10 and coming off a shut out loss if they are going up against a team with fewer than 5 wins L10. The Braves may have gotten shut out yesterday but the overriding momentum L10 is really on their side.
What scares us a bit about this game is Braden Looper being on the mound for the Brewers. These Brewers are 13-7 in his 20 starts this season, good for being 6.8 units.
The Braves are an interesting bunch. If they are batting against a pitcher of the same orientation as their prior game, they do really well. As in, they are facing a lefty today and faced one yesterday. Or they are facing a righty today and faced one yesterday. A lineup can get used to seeing the ball coming from one side in such a scenario. If it trips up, meaning the team is facing a lefty today but a righty the game before or vice versa, the lineup can get off kilter.
These Braves are 24-30, -10 units against a new orientation pitcher. But are 25-18 if batting against the same orientation.
Anyways, this is not to say that we should bet the Braves every opportunity that we get when we see them facing a team of the same orientation but rather that it is something today that neutralizes in part Looper, i.e. we'd never bet on these Braves today had they faced a lefty yesterday.
