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Picks for 7/29/09
Result: -1.73 units
Boston Red Sox (-175) over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) -
Betting on a favorite of -175 requires some convincing... We don't have to convince you that these Red Sox will win, the fact they are heavy favorites suggests it is quite obvious they should win. But what we need to do is show you why they are still undervalued today.
First of all, these Red Sox find themselves in a good bounceback position. They lost by just 1 run yesterday and now face a lefty which is special because they are averaging 0.5 runs a game more against lefties than they do against righties.
Second of all, heading into yesterday's win.. you'd have said the Athletics were struggling, right? One win does not necessarily cure all that ails you especially not on the road against a Fenway park team that is 34-16 at home.
The Red Sox are +7.45 units at home this season. For the Red Sox to have broken even at home this season, their odds would have had to be -212 for every home game. Now ask yourselves, are the Red Sox's chances better or worse than average today at home? I'd say they have about an average shot today.
Brad Penny may not be their best of pitchers but it is the Red Sox offense and the A's slumpingness that make this a worthwhile pick.
With that said, they are about 40 points undervalued today.
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Chicago White Sox (137) over Minnesota Twins (1.0 Units) -
The White Sox are our only dog today. The White Sox are struggling, they keep losing but they are 15-7 when they face a lefty after having faced a righty. They average almost a run better against lefties than they do against righties and this is why they excel so much. After losing against a lefty in game 1 of this series, look for them to avoid a sweep today against their divisional foe by really paying attention to the scouting reports on Liriano. And the fact that they hit lefties well just makes them paying attention all the more powerful. THey are underdogs today and are thus, undervalued by default.
Besides, Liriano is not the dominant pitcher we thought he was. The Twins are just 8-9 when he starts. And against the White Sox this season, he's 0-2.
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Los Angeles Angels (-174) over Cleveland Indians (1.0 Units) -
The Angels get to face a lefty for the second time in a row today, they are 5-1, +6 units this season in that spot.
Laffey isn't all that great a pitcher neither. He got a shut over on the road against the Mariners in his last start but that won't necessarily spill over today. The Angels are a hot ball club, and weak pitchers off good starts can falter in such a situation.
The Angels are also 23-9 in the back end of a series which suggests they get better as a series progresses.
With the home field advantage, facing a lefty twice in a row, looking for a series win, and having 8 wins L10 suggest these Angels are going to catch the Indians sleeping today. In the last game of a meaningless series before they are headed back home to play a real rival in the Tigers.
