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Picks for 7/31/09
Result: -0.30 units
Baltimore Orioles (110) over Boston Red Sox (1.5 Units) -
The Red Sox are much better against lefties, averaging 0.6 runs a game better against southpaws. After facing lefties in two consecutive games, we don't expect their offense is going to be able to adjust quickly back to facing righties. Now they'll do okay but the little bit that they struggle will be to our advantage. They are traveling today on 0 days rest.
These Orioles don't have to travel.
Then comes to our last issue. We love to bet against Smoltz right now. He's kind of a favorite with bettors and his odds are just so ugly and overvalued. The Red Sox are 1-5, -6.5 units in his starts this season... 0-3 when on the road. Of course, he'll win a game sooner or later but the likelihood he can turn things around on the road against a divisional rival is not so likely. So we'll take these Orioles as underdogs no problem.
64% of the betting public is on these Red Sox so that is pushing these odds a bit in our favor to go against them.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-109) over San Diego Padres (1.0 Units) -
First of all, these Brewers are much better in the start of their series. They are 35-29 in the first two games of a series but are just 15-20 in the back end of the series. So if you want to go for the Brewers, look for them at the start of a series.
With that said, we think the Brewers are a good value pick today. They are just -109 in the odds today with their ace Looper on the mound. They are 13-8, +6 units with him on the mound. And with Looper, it does not matter whether he pitches at home or on the road, he's consistent!
The Padres had a great series against the Reds, winning 3 of 4 games but I think they might be a bit complacent for today's game. In the first game of a series this season, the Reds are just 10-23, -10 units this season. And they are only 8 games below 500 in the rest of their games!!
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Texas Rangers (-165) over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) -
The Rangers are averaging 6 runs a game thus far in their home stretch and they happen to score more runs against lefties on average than they do against righties. Today, they will be facing their second consecutive lefty.
The Mariners, on the other hand are struggling to score runs. They are averaging less than 3 runs a game L10 and only 3.35 runs a game L20. We don't expect much out of their offense because they will be facing Padilla. The Rangers are 13-6 when Padilla pitches.
Poor Mariners offense and strong Rangers offense suggests an easy win here.
The Rangers are 35-20 at home this season. If they were the Red Sox or the Yankees, they'd be -210 in a game like this. But they are not because they do not have a high betting profile.
The Rangers should be -180 in a generic home game.. But this game is slightly different. The Rangers are +13 units off a win, only _1 unit off a loss. Since they beat the Mariners already yesterday, even more momentum goodness here.
Take this game action on Padilla pitching.
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Cleveland Indians (127) over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units) -
We love the Indians as a dog today. They are 42-60 overall and 20-28 at home this season. Not sure that anybody really expects anything out of them this season.
They are not going to be playing their games seriously the rest of this season. At 18 games below 500, they have a very little chance at winning the division or the wild card.
But with that said, they have heart. What team does not want to come out and play their best against the division leader. And if the Indians were to sweep this series, they'd be only 9 games behind the Tigers and no more than 10 games behind in the division. So why not play their hearts out today?
It'd be kind of like a playoffs game.
We've seen this phenomenon a lot in systems. Teams that should lay down and play for dead the rest of the series wake up and play great against a divisional rival... and/or at key games at home.
If our theory holds true, they would catch the Tigers off balance. The Tigers are 2 games below 500 in the first game of a series, -4 units. But are 11 games above 500 in every other game. And on the road, they are -8 units this season...
So some key trends are out there going against the Tigers....
