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Picks for 6/7/09: Giants A Medium Sized Favorite Against the Marlins

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Rivalry Page: Giants vs Marlins

Result: +1.00 units

San Francisco Giants (-140) over Florida Marlins (1.0 Units) -

To be honest, we've been debating back and forth whether or not to choose this pick. We feel the Giants are in a good position to win today as per the systems they fall under. But do we really want to pay a -140 fee for it?

Ultimately, we've decided to pull the trigger with these Giants.

First off, the Marlins hardly have what you could call a home field advantage. Their road record is better than their home record. So these Marlins do not get extra points for being at home today.

So taking the Giants as a road -140 is not wholly insane.

National League road favorites of more than -130 are undervalued by 6 points if they are playing a non-divisional rival and coming off a 1-run loss. And the systems has been a winning system in 8 of its past 10 season if they had a win prior to their one-run loss. This is one of those things that are by design in our systems. The fact that they lost by one-run is a motivating factor but we want to avoid betting on teams that are in the midst of a slide. The fact that the Giants had won their prior 3 games is evidence of that.

But more telling is the fact that they are 7-3L10. If we look at only those teams that have more than 5 wins L10, we'd be betting on a team that was 32-15 and undervalued by an average of 20 points a game.

Take this game action on Lincecum pitching for the Giants.