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Picks for 6/9/09: Yankees As Dog Against Red Sox

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Rivalry Page: Yankees vs Red Sox

Rivalry Page: Marlins vs Cardinals

Rivalry Page: Diamondbacks vs Giants

Rivalry Page: Phillies vs Mets

Result: -2.39 units

We've only had 3 premium picks over the past 4 days. And most days over the past week or so just one pick daily. We don't force a pick just to have action on a game. We'll analyze each game and if we believe it is a good bet, we'll go for it. Never are we shy to pass on a day of action because we know that after 162 games of baseball, we'll be on top... well hopefully ;-)

With that said, we have four picks today. And all underdogs.

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New York Yankees (127) over Boston Red Sox (1.5 Units) -

We almost always look to betting on the underdog in the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. Because no matter how good a pitcher a team goes against or how badly a team is playing, they will always be bringing their A-game. Underdogs in the Yankees-Red Sox series are +38 units the past 10 seasons.

The Red Sox are favorites today because they are at home and because Beckett is pitching. But Beckett has a career 5.80 ERA against the Yankees in his career!

That is point 1.

Point 2 is that teams off a series win against a team off a series loss have the advantage in the first game of a new series. This goes in favor of the Yankees.

Point 3 is that when divisional rivals face off for the first game in a series, the team that comes into the series having played a divsional rival has the advantage over their opponent if they were facing a non-divisional rivalry game. This would be the case for the Yankees.

Take this game action regardless of pitcher.

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Florida Marlins (111) over St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 Units) - The Cardinals just got swept at home against the Rockies... a non-divisional rival that sucks on the road. And they lost those games by struggling to score. So how does such a team dare to think they can actually turn things around on the road?

The odds are against them.

We bet against favorites when we think their offenses are lackluster because a team could have a Cy Young award winning pitcher on the mound but lose the game because they couldn't score.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (110) over San Francisco Giants (1.0 Units) -

We don't like the Giants today because they just got swept in the final game of a 4-game series against the Marlins. Not only that but they play on 0 days rest in a day they had to travel from the east coast to the west coast.

Just as in basketball, baseball is no different in that we should look to bet against teams due to the travel and 0 days rest angle. The reason it is not so highly publicized in baseball is because how often does this issue really come up. Only about 1 in 3.5 games would be the first game of a series. And half of those would be a team playing on 0 days rest. Then to factor in going from east coast to west coast is even more rare.

Secondly, teams struggle on the road the longer they are on the road. Their first road series after having played at home will be okay. The second consecutive road series will be a little worse. The third even worse. The Giants played in Washington and then Florida and now in Arizona.

Third, these Giants are struggling to score. And with all that has been said above, very little reason to think they will bounce back from it.

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Philadelphia Phillies (160) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) -

These Phillies have just played two consecutive series on the west coast and now travel on the road for an east coast game. But that is not so major of a distraction as it would be for the Giants. with the Giants, they've become acclimated to East Coast time zone. So their game with the Diamondbacks would effectively start 9:40PM and end around midnight. They will not have gas near the end of the game. With the Phillies, it will be like they are starting an early game.

We admit we don't like the fact that the Phillies have been on the road so long but we admit they ended off their series with the Dodgers well and the Mets were on the road for a while too themselves.

And although we are betting against Santana, we are still getting a team that is +160 with a pitcher that has had three great starts this season.