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Picks for 6/11/09: Red Sox versus Yankees Picks
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Rivalry Page: Red Sox vs Yankees
Rivalry Page: Giants vs Diamondbacks
Result: +1.07 units
Boston Red Sox (138) over New York Yankees (1.5 Units) -
We took the Yankees in the first game of this series and cited the fact that the underdog in the Red Sox - Yankees game has been money. But we don't bet the underdog every single time but we almost do so when it is the home team that is the dog.
But not only that the Red Sox fall into some pretty good generic systems.
First, let's see how home divisional rival dogs do when they are up 2-0 in a series. They are only +5 units spread over the past 11 seasons. So basically it is as if you were to pick a game at random. Not too impressive, right?
Well it is as we expected, it is tough to keep beating your rival. Just as it is tough to go 3-0 against a team in the NFL. And if a team is down 2-0 and is favorite in game 3, rest assured that they won't disappoint as likely as they would in game 1 for example.
Because this is a generic betting angle, you have to look a little deeper into the situation. We have to wonder, why is a team an underdog at home? It could be because they suck or because they are going up against a good pitcher.
Well, the Red Sox don't suck so let's eliminate the crappy teams. So if we look at those teams with a greater than 50% record, then we wind up with a system that is +21 units in about 200 games.
If we eliminate slumping teams by focusing in on those teams that have won 5 or more games L10, we get a system that is 83-76, +28 units.
Quite simple isn't it?
Just because the Yankees have CC Sabathia on the mound and are looking to bounce back from losing the first two games is no justification for making them heavier favorites than they should be.
Brad Penny may have a bloated ERA this season, but don't be scared about him. He'd have a short leash if he gets into trouble. It is the Yankees that should be worried. Burnett and Wang only lasted 2.2 innings in games 1 and 2 respectively. This means that their bullpen has had to work 10.2 innings the past 2 games. So a tight game between the two clubs actually benefit the Red Sox today as well.
This game should be a pick'em and take it action regardless of pitcher.
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San Francisco Giants (148) over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) -
The Giants are up 2-0 in this series and are looking for the clean sweep today. It is hard to get a 4-game sweep but actually not so hard to get a 3-game sweep. And there's no reason to justify the Giants being such heavy dogs.
The Diamondbacks are struggling right now and have been poor all season against lefties. They average about 1.5 fewer runs a game against lefties than they do against righties. So even though the Giants are 3-7 in Sanchez's starts this season and he has a bloated, the D'backs' inability to hit lefties will come to his advantage. Note that Sanchez has pitched 7.2 innings against the Diamondbacks this season and only given up 3 hits and no runs earned.
So the Giants not only have the advantage pitching wise but also momentum. And we're getting a heavy spread here. Our bet would be a lot stronger if there were a better lefty on the mound today but of course we wouldn't be getting +148 with a better lefty.
Road divisional rival dogs up 2-0 in a series with a lefty on the mound has only had one losing season the past 10 seasons. This has gone 47-50, +14.3 units. But this is looking at generic teams. If said team bats poorly against lefties, the system improves to 27-20, +17 units. With a team that is undervalued by 36 points.
This game should also be a pick'em.
Take this game action regardless of pitcher. The system described here wouldn't make much sense if the Giants had a righty on the mound BUT we are still getting a pretty darn good spread today.
