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Picks for 5/6/09: Yankees Too Overvalued as Divisional Favorite
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Rivalry Page: Devil Rays vs Yankees
Rivalry Page: Giants vs Rockies
Rivalry Page: Astros vs Cubs
Result: +0.37 units
Tampa Devil Rays +158 over New York Yankees (1.5 Units) - We were actually almost about to take the Yankees yesterday.
Thus far in the season, they are averaging about 2 more runs a game against righties than they are lefties. But because yesterday represented the end of a 2-game series, we felt the Red Sox would be eager to get an "easy" sweep if you can call going 2-0 in a 2-game series that.
But now we have to go against the Yankees. They are just being totally overvalued at the moment. At home, they are just 1-game above 500. These Devil Rays are only 2 games behind them in the standings... so it is not like they are horrible or anything.
That alone gives us the confidence to make this a pick. What makes this a slightly higher rated pick is the fact that these Yankees are coming off a series against the Red Sox in which they got swept. I'd bet all their attention this week was centered in going against and scouting the Red Sox... all the while overlooking this Devil Rays team.
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San Francisco Giants (130) over Colorado Rockies (1.0 Units) - It was not hard to correctly bet against these Rockies yesterday and it is not going to be very hard to do so today either. The Rockies are kind of heavily favored today ... but why? Offensively, they are in a little bit of a tailspin. They are averaging just 3.4 runs a game over their prior 5 games. And it would be worse if not for their 9 run stint to begin the Padres season.
And if you're worried about Randy Johnson, don't be. He did quite well in his last outing against the Rockies on May 1.
All in all, we're getting value in this divisional rival dog.
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Houston Astros (140) over Chicago Cubs (1.0 Units) - Blindly betting on divisional rivalry dogs tend to win you money in baseball. Not necessarily per season but over time. So you'd need to narrow down these games into a smaller subset of games that you feel are the bestest of values. These Astros are good value because the odds are at +140 and we get to bet on a home team :-) .. Home divisional rivalry dog! Not only that, the Astros have Hampton, a southpaw, on the mound. These Cubbies are currently averaging 1.5 runs a game less against lefties than they are against righties. And despite the fact that these Cubs pulled off 4 straight wins before yesterday's loss, they are coming into this series off a loss. That is a momentum changer especially for a team that has to travel and face a southpaw. Either way, the value is with the home team.
