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Picks for 5/7/09: Pick the Brewers With Momentum

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Rivalry Page: Brewers vs Reds

Rivalry Page: Phillies vs Mets

Result: -2.00 units

We've got another 2 dogs for you today.

Milwaukee Brewers (100) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) -

The Brewers are having a terrific road swing. After sweeping the Pirates, they demolished these Reds in game 1 in a

15-3 win. This game is essentially a pick 'em at the moment but we'll take the value in these Brewers. They fall into a couple of the systems that we follow closely. One that involves going for teams scoring well offensively and one that involves betting against poor home teams.

Philadelphia Phillies (128) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) - Betting on a team coming off a 1-0 loss is one of the best hidden secrets in baseball. Our reasoning is kind of simple. First, we are betting on a team that lost by 1-run. These types of teams are better concentrated on the scouting reports, taking pitches, being aggressive on the base paths, etc. Now when you find a team that has lost 1-0, it generally guarantees that the opposing team is also not rolling so well offensively. I mean, they would have only scored just 1 run in their previous game.

We also like the Phillies in that they are 8-3 on the road thus far in the season. They are still averaging almost 7 runs a game L10 despite being shutout last night. So the value on this team on the road against a divisional rival exists.