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Picks for 5/18/09: Nationals Were Swept in 4 Game Series

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Rivalry Page: Nationals vs Pirates

Result: -1.12 units

Washington Nationals (-114) over Pittsburgh Pirates (1.0 Units) - The Washington Nationals were swept in a 4-game series over the weekend so why are we so bold as to think they could win today? Well because they are favorites today. Stupid logic?

Not really because we are going to differentiate the 3-game series from the 4-game series. We love to bet against teams that get swept. We still do. Teams are -80 units and overvalued by 12 points if they are favorites coming off a 3-game sweep. But teams off a 4-game sweep perform differently. In non-divisional rivalry games, these teams off a 4-game sweep have actually done okay. Their record is [21-13, +4 units] which is hardly an exciting betting play... but it does highlight the fact that we can look at this game a bit differently.

The point here is that these Nationals will be trying to bounce back off of this horrible series that they just had. And they are going to have as good a luck as ever today going up against a Pirates team that is incredibly weak on the road and forced to travel on 0 days rest.

We are going to take this game action regardless of pitcher.