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Picks for 5/19/09: Bet Against a Team That Just Got Swept
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Rivalry Page: Phillies vs Reds
Rivalry Page: Devil Rays vs Athletics
Rivalry Page: Giants vs Padres
Rivalry Page: Angels vs Mariners
Result: -1.38 units
Philadelphia Phillies (-116) over Cincinnati Reds (2.0 Units) - The Reds just got swept and did so because they couldn't put runs on the board. They averaged just 3 runs a game in their 3-game series against the Padres.
Now, they will be facing a lefty. That is not good as they average 1.5 runs fewer a game against lefties than they do against righties. Even though they are coming home, they are actually worse at home this season than they are on the road.
So they cannot rely on home field advantage to turn things around... Instead, I bet their offense will continue to struggle today.
All the wile these Phillies are smacking the heck out of the ball.
They have won 4 straight games, averaging over 8 runs a game during that stretch and even are 12-4 on the road this season. The Phillies have a considerable advantage, more than the -116 they are at in the spread here.
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Tampa Bay Devil Rays (-191) over Oakland Athletics (2.0 Units) - The Athletics are the worst team in the AL. They are also a putrid 5-12 on the road this season... The Devil Rays are just at 500 this season but they are averaging about twice as many runs in their last 5 games as the Athletics are in their last 5 games.
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San Francisco Giants (128) over San Diego Padres (1.0 Units) -
The Padres are only averaging 3.4 runs a game this season against lefties. And they have to face Zito today at home. Despite the fact that they are coming off of a series in which they swept the Reds, we do not expect to look so strong offensively today.
The Giants, on the other hand, are also not expected to do much. But the odds here are just too good to pass up.
Getting a divisional rival dog at about +130 in a game we do not expect much offense out of the favorite is a great bet.
Take this game action on Barry Zito pitching.
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Los Angeles Angels (139) over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) -
The Angels are a good bet as a dog... and the only reason they are dogs today is because they are going up against Felix Hernandez, but in his career agains the Angels, he's only 3-4 with an ERA of almost 5.
The Mariners do not have much of a home field advantage. They are even 500 at home.
They are not playing great ball lately, just 3-7L10 and averaging 3.6 runs a game during that span.
The Angels are also coming off a game in which they scored double digits. Divisional rival underdogs off a game in which they scored DD is +73 units the past 11 seasons.
The Angels are just good value. Take this game action regardless of pitcher.
