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Picks for 5/22/09: Home Teams Advantage in Interleague Games
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Result: 0.00 units
Home teams have an advantage in Interleague games for several reasons we have iterated over the course of several seasons. First of all, the scouting reports these teams have of their opponents will not be so thorough which only highlights the importance of the home field advantage. Secondly, the effort and intensity put in by both teams are not going to be so strong because of the fact that these teams hardly know each, barely hate each other thus highlighting home field advantage. Third, since these teams are not used to visiting the interleague city they are more apt to being interested in traveling and bringing their family along than actually playing baseball. For example, how often does Detroit play in Colorado? And the fourth involves the intricacies of the stadium. Only the home team would be aware of where to hit to get those extra base hits or where and how to field.
Even home favorites are strong bets in these Interleague games. From 2004-2006, AL home teams in Interleague games were +80 units. They were just +12 units the past 2 seasons though. The disparity comes because of how much stronger the AL teams were from 2004-2006.
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New York Yankees (-152) over Philadelphia Phillies (3.0 Units) -
The Yankees are an exceptional pick because of how well their offense has been rolling and how much they have been winning. They are currently on a 9-game winning streak! To add to that, they are in their third consecutive home series and teams get better as they go deeper within a home series. The Phillies are also playing well but they have been on the road since their game exactly a week ago May 15.
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Detroit Tigers (-138) over Colorado Rockies (2.0 Units) - The analysis here is similar to why we chose the Yankees above. Playing well. Third consecutive home series.
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Seattle Mariners (-132) over San Francisco Giants (1.5 Units) - Third consecutive home series. Coming off a shut out loss. Facing a lefty for the second game in a row.
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Boston Red Sox (121) over New York Mets (1.5 Units) -
The Red Sox are 25-16 on the season and 16-4 at home ... there is no reason for them to be underdogs today. The reason that they are is because they are going up against Johan Santana. The advantage Santana has in this interleague matchup over any other random NL pitcher is that he's pitchhed in the AL before and has some familiarity with Fenway park and the Boston Red Sox.
But at the same time, you are getting a 16-4 home team at +121 value going up against a team with a poorer than 50% road record.
Take this game action regardless of pitcher.
