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Picks for 5/24/09: Athletics Fighting to Avoid a Sweep
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Rivalry Page: Padres vs Cubs
Result: +1.00 units
Oakland Athletics (-133) over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5 Units) -
The Athletics are down 0-2 in this series and are fighting to avoid a sweep.
Interleague home teams in that situation are 86-66, +19.4 units the past 10 seasons. And undervalued by an average of 12.7 points a game. But it only really works when those teams are favorite in game 3! The system is 57-28, +18.5 units and undervalued by an average of 22 points a game. So the Athletics could easily be -150 here.
We've bumped up the value of this play to a Game of the Week caliber play for two reasons. First, the A's are coming off two consecutive one-run losses and that has been known to be a motivating factor. Second, the Diamondbacks do not hit lefties very well this season. They are averaging just 3.2 runs a game against lefties contrasted with 4.7 runs a game versus righties.
Take this game action regardless of pitcher. But if the A's do not have Outman on the mound, we'd have to bet this as a regular play.
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Detroit Tigers (-152) over Colorado Rockies (1.5 Units) -
We are paying a premium here for getting Willis on the mound but we feel the Tigers' home field advantage will propel them to a victory. First off, since this is in the third game of a series tied 1-1, the winner will have essentially won the series. With that in mind, it becomes an important game for both teams and we'll settle on betting the team whose 7-game winning streak was crushed.
They've got an ace on the mound so they are primed for a comeback. Take this game action on Willis pitching.
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San Diego Padres (-106) over Chicago Cubs (1.0 Units) - A win by the Padres today gives them a sweep over the Cubs. The Padres have been struggling to score but Petco Park can do that to your offense but it also does it to your opponent. These Cubs have only scored just 1 run in the first two games of the series.
Chris Young has turned out to be such a homer pitcher. In 2007, his home ERA was 1.69 and road ERA was 4.52.
In 2008, it was 2.35 versus 5.27. And this season, it has been even more pronounced in the few games thus far in the season: 2.16 versus 8.03.
So despite the fact that the Padres themselves are not really expected to score a lot of runs, we really do not see much from these Cubs at all. The Padres should win a slight victory and the small spread here is why we'll feel comfortable taking them.
Take this game action on chris Young pitching.
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Boston Red Sox (-176) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) -
We are using the same betting systems here as we did for the A's game. Taking a home interleague favorite fighting to avoid a 3-game sweep.
