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Picks for 4/30/11: Orioles A Good Dog Value
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Rivalry Page: Orioles vs White Sox
Rivalry Page: Padres vs Dodgers
Rivalry Page: Royals vs Twins
Rivalry Page: Rangers vs Athletics
Result: +4.66 units
Baltimore Orioles +120 over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units) - Finding underdogs to bet is a whole lot easier than finding favorites. When you look for an underdog, you just have to find a game that appears to be close to even money in terms of probability -- specifically a bad looking favorite. And these White Sox don't look very good. They are 3-7 L10 and 6-14L20. They are averaging fewer than 3 runs a game L5, L10, and L20. The Orioles are coming off having scored double digits. We've found that to be a very profitable play when used in conjunction with other systems. Scoring double digits means a team is rolling, has momentum, and a lot of confidence. Kind of an easy play to make. Take the dog.
San Diego Padres +128 over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) - This may look like a very stupid play. The Padres are averaging fewer than 2 runs a game L10. 2.35 runs a game L20 and even less than 3 runs a game for the season. But we bet them because of a major reason. This rivalry generally favors the dog. The dog can win this matchup no matter how poorly either of them are playing in the season because they bring their A-game.
Kansas City Royals +103 over Twins (1.0 Units) - We were right to bet the Royals yesterday as a dog and if yesterday was a good bet, today should be too. The Royals average almost 3 more runs a game against lefties. So today's play is even stronger.
Texas Rangers +115 over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) - The Rangers are averaging about 6.6 runs a game against lefties. After having a few disappointing offensive performances, we expect today of all days for them to bust out. Against righties, almost undoubtedly they score 4 or fewer runs but against lefties, they do well. And as a divisional rival dog they have value.
