NEW: Follow us on Twitter!
Picks for 9/19/11: Marlins Not Bigger Dog Versus Braves
Click here if you are looking for today's free baseball picks?
Rivalry Page: Marlins vs Braves
Result: +1.00 units
I only have 1 pick today but I might have a second one. I usually stay up late to get the picks straightened out but I got to send this out early. So I've done the writeup on the second game that I might play... Good luck.
Hit three of four of our baseball plays yesterday. Seems like our baseball plays are starting to get on a little roll... Our baseball loss yesterday was on fading the Angels. We were right to fade a struggling team but considering the situation being as desperate as it was, you'd expect the Angels to come out and give it their all, their whole season on the line and they did it by scoring 11 runs. It is good to look back at the plays you've made and question yourself as to whether or not it was a good play. Sometimes you lose but still concede it was a good play but other times not and it helps you make better picks next time.
Marlins [-101] versus Braves (1.0 Units) - Our only pick for today for now. The odds here are pretty much pick'em. The Braves are bad in game 1's. They are bad in their first road series. And they do worse against divisional rivals than non-divisional rivals. The Braves are leading the wildcard by 3.5 games and should be a heavy favorite against the Marlins generally but the fact that they are not should already signal some problems. The Marlins have played the second half of the season pretty well moneyline by breaking even. They were down -9 units the first half. Though that isn't a factor of them playing better but rather them just being properly valuated by the sportsbooks. We'll give them an edge because whenever you see a small home favorite or small home dog against a much much better team, it usually should signal value for them. Because the sportsbooks are afraid to make the Braves a dog because everybody would bet it. So they make them a small favorite.
NOT A PICK -- ANALYSIS ONLY -- Diamondbacks vs Pirates (NO Units) - Our program kept spitting out the Pirates as a solid pick today. But we are going to avoid it. We've been burned going against ACE pitchers. These Dbacks are 23-8 when Kennedy pitches.
There is a reason to like the Pirates. We don't like teams coming off a long road stretch in their first home game back. They are too distracted with being reunited with family, timing since they are no longer all together at a hotel but at home. It takes a game to get back in the groove. Going against home teams off a road stretch that included more than 1 road series is blindly up +45 units this season. The problem with this theory is it is taking into account the entire 162 game season where a game here and there is not important. These Dbacks are fighting for playoff positioning and we don't expect professionals like them, this late in the season, to let a game go let alone against the Pirates!!
In baseball, as teams continue to play on the road, they get worse plain and simple. Longer you live out of a suitcase and be away from your family, the worse it is for a team's offense. In fact, these Pirates are the poster child for that statement. In their first consecutive series on the road, they are 22-18, +13 continually overlooked by oddsmakers. But in their second consecutive series on the road, they fall to a dismal 6-21, -14 units.
The Dbacks have their ACE on the mound and that is factored into the odds. But going back to our +45 unit angle above... it is HORRIBLE when the team is a heavy dog like these Pirates are. It means when a team comes back home after a long stretch with what most likely is a team's ACE, they will win. Those teams are 130-42, +28.6 units the past 8 seasons meaning they are undervalued by about 20 points. This becomes a MONSTER when the teams are non-divisional rivals 72-20, +24 units undervalued by 26 points. It did not work much beyond 8 years because of the steroid era I think when ACE pitchers did not dominate as much. I think what it is is the fact that this team's home field advantage is stronger than normal because of the long layoff specifically because it is a game they should win.... kinda like a homecoming. Should these Dbacks really be that heavy a favorite. Well I don't like to play such heavy favorites so I'm debating it.
I don't do runlines because you lose value playing the conversion. If a pick is good value on the moneyline it probably is good value on the runline. But never is a play a good value on the runline but a bad one on the moneyline. Worse is the fact that these Diamondbacks are only averaging 2.6 runs a game L5. Hard to win by at least 2 runs if you're barely averaging that in your recent few games, hehe.
So a Diamondbacks team that just came off a long series in which they did poorly coming back home with their ACE on the mound against a poor offensive team in a rut (2-8L10) and does poorly in the second consecutive road series (6-21) and has nothing to play for has got to be an 80% likelihood of winning. Meaning they'd be value anything less -300. But let's look at that 72-20 again. 20 of those games were 1 run wins. So those teams are 52-40 on the runline. It translates to -130. The Dbacks are -113 on the runline right now. There's already uncertainty with the fact we're looking at a subset of games but we only add more uncertainty by looking at the runline winners. And then on top of that these Dbacks are a home team and that is bad for a run line. Imagine equal footing both teams play 8 innings and the Dbacks are up by 2. The Pirates could knock in a run in the top of the 9th and game over. So the road team bats 9 innings while the home team only bats 8 innings. With that said, we're not at all confident these Dbacks should be -130 on the runline or we'd make a play. We are more confident they are closer to 72-20 on the moneyline which translates to about -360 with the uncertainty and poor recent offense they'd be around -280 to -320. Their moneyline odds are -250 here.. But these 30 points are not as strong as say +120 versus +150...
This is an addendum to the analysis we did on the Dbacks game for today. The 72-20 angle can be split into two parts. Before game 100, these teams are 46-8, +26 units. Afterwards 26-11, +0 units. So after game 100, you got to avoid it. And it raises an interesting issue that comes up in baseball handicapping. Many folks begin betting later in the season which means favorites tend to become even more overvalued than they should be. And because of that, their odds are overvalued. Case in point, teams become -200 that would not otherwise have been so earlier in the season. With that said, the Diamondbacks are clearly a favorite but are they worthy of snapping them at -250.. I say not because a heavy favorite like this will have been bought up heavy from all the action going their way... And when combined with the fact that we have a lot of betting angles going for the Pirates to get a sneaky win... (remember the Dbacks are traveling and they are a poor team in the first game of a series) could be an upset. So no play either way but interesting to watch and see which of these angles end up panning out....
Take care and enjoy your Monday.
