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Picks for 9/21/11: Giants in Bounceback Spot

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Rivalry Page: Giants vs Dodgers

Rivalry Page: Phillies vs Nationals

Rivalry Page: Royals vs Tigers

Rivalry Page: Blue Jays vs Angels

Result: -2.94 units

We're on a 20-13, +13.47 units roll.. So thanks to those of you sticking with us through our 50% stretch... It really wasn't as bad as we've had in the past. We've gone through stretches of -10 units or even worse at times. That is just how handicapping goes...We've opened the football/college foots season kind of poorly. We're -3 units with that but with a big o-fer 0-4 in NFL. But we generally get better as the season progresses. And I'll spend more time on football when baseball season enters the playoffs and there's only 1 game to analyze instead of 15.

Giants [-102] versus Dodgers (1.0 Units) - Of the two plays yesterday, we went 1-1 but +1.24 units because the Pirates hit. We love hitting those huge dogs because we can lose two other plays and still be positive on the day. I'd have thought the best value play was the Giants though. A pitchers duel Kershaw vs Lincecum would suggest a low scoring game and low scoring games favor the dog. And then add to that this is a divisional rival dog play hot primed for the playoffs. They were still stifled. One factor going against them yesterday is that they were actually 2 games below 500 team in the first game of a series 23-25, -9.7 units. But we ignored that to focus more on their recent performance offensively and on the won-loss column. Also that they are a spectacular team against lefties +9 units while against righties -9 units. Anyways, these Giants are primed for a bounceback today. They lost by 1 run. They play better against lefties -- the Dodgers are foolish to put in another lefty today knowing the Giants are strong against them. Then they avoid the factor that went against them in yesterday's game... the "first game of a series rut".

Phillies [-194] versus Nationals (1.0 Units) - The Phillies are +11.5 units against lefties, only +3 units against righties. They are on a 4-game losing streak. These Phillies are also 16-4 in Worley's starts this season and they need him to bump them out of this slump they are in. Besides they are also coming off being shut out and that generally bodes well for a heavy favorite. So we've got a great pitcher on the mound and primed to bounce back offensively against a lefty after having been shut out.. Hmmmm. The Phillies have been struggling offensively but so have the Nationals and they are probably going to be outplayed out managed, out pitched. A weak start by Lannan and these Nationals are going to have to go deep in their bullpen and the Phillies are going to play batting practice to try and get themselves in better form for the playoffs. Here's the tip. Whenever you see a team slumping, look for the "perfect" time for them to bounce back because that is the time they will. Heavy favorites off a shut out loss combined with 3 or more losses are 17-3, +12 units dating back to the start of last season.

Royals [116] versus Tigers (1.0 Units) - The Royals are 8-2L10! This is only a two game series so we'll throw out all of our analysis we use from the dynamics of the series itself. All we're looking at is a streaking weak team late in the season looking to play spoiler. And that is a strong angle. Why else are they only +116.

Blue Jays [152] versus Angels (1.0 Units) - If the Red Sox keep slumping and we know the Rays have their hands full with the Yankees and they lose a few games, these Angels just might have a shot and leapfrog those fools and get the wild card. We had a loss on the Angels recently under the belief they were struggling and were going to slip OUT of contention. Well that did not happen. But we'll still go against them today. My feeling is that we're getting a +152 team that plays nondivisional rivals well. The Blue Jays are 9 games above 500 and +8 units versus non rivals. And by coming off a loss we like that. They are +10.8 units off a loss while they are -8.5 units off a win. So I guess my feeling is that we're getting an undervalued home team that is playing good enough not to fade against a team that is hyped up a little too much hence overvalued.