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Predicting Easier Overs

For those of you reading my article on Beating The Run Line 80% of the time noticed a interesting dynamic between the total score in the game and whether the home team won or lost.

The following are the average total scores conditioned on the following teams winning

	League Wide: 9.74
	Road Team: 9.94
	Road Favorite: 9.91
	Road Underdog: 9.96
	Home Team: 9.57
	Home Favorite: 9.59
	Home Underdog: 9.50

Keep in mind that these statistics have been taken over the high scoring era. There have been signs that the 2005 season is starting to become a pitcher's era so the average total scores are lowering. Regardless though, when road teams win the average score will be higher.

Percentage of Games Leading to Overs based on the following teams winning:

	League Wide: 49.1%
	Road Team: 51.3%
	Road Favorite: 51.6%
	Road Underdog: 49.2%
	Home Team: 47.1%
	Home Favorite: 47.4$
	Home Underdog: 46.1%

When road teams win the over is 4% more likely to occur than when home teams win. Since the difference is the fact that our road team has to bat in the 9th. Identifying a situation where we have a road team that is likely to win, questionable starting pitching but most importantly, a home team that has a weak bullpen will produce easier overs.


Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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