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Predicting Easier Overs
For those of you reading my article on Beating The Run Line 80% of the time noticed a interesting dynamic between the total score in the game and whether the home team won or lost.
The following are the average total scores conditioned on the following teams winning
League Wide: 9.74
Road Team: 9.94
Road Favorite: 9.91
Road Underdog: 9.96
Home Team: 9.57
Home Favorite: 9.59
Home Underdog: 9.50
Keep in mind that these statistics have been taken over the high scoring era. There have been signs that the 2005 season is starting to become a pitcher's era so the average total scores are lowering. Regardless though, when road teams win the average score will be higher.
Percentage of Games Leading to Overs based on the following teams winning:
League Wide: 49.1%
Road Team: 51.3%
Road Favorite: 51.6%
Road Underdog: 49.2%
Home Team: 47.1%
Home Favorite: 47.4$
Home Underdog: 46.1%
When road teams win the over is 4% more likely to occur than when home teams win. Since the difference is the fact that our road team has to bat in the 9th. Identifying a situation where we have a road team that is likely to win, questionable starting pitching but most importantly, a home team that has a weak bullpen will produce easier overs.
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