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Analyzing the Run Line

Many of you love betting the Run Line, especially with the heavy favorites because of the reduced chalk. In fact, you can turn a -150 Money Line Favorite into a Run Line Underdog. The reduced juice keeps your risk low.

The oddsmakers use the standard fact that 70% of Winners beat the Run Line to calculate the Run Line odds.

The first thing I wanted to test was how teams with a certain money line odds performed on the Run Line. Is there a correlation between the odds a team has and how it performs against the run line.

Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

	League Wide: 72.5%
	+200 or more: 70.2%
	+190s: 77.0%
	+180s: 76.4%
	+170s: 67.4%
	+160s: 75.3%
	+150s: 72.9%
	+140s: 70.9%
	+130s: 73.5%
	+120s: 68.0%
	+110s: 72.4%
	+100s: 72.9%
	-100s: 68.9%
	-110s: 70.6%
	-120s: 72.4%
	-130s: 72.4%
	-140s: 74.7%
	-150s: 74.5%
	-160s: 75.3%
	-170s: 71.9%
	-180s: 70.8%
	-190s: 77.5%
	-200s: 76.2%

Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.

MORE ON RUN LINE ANALYSIS >> (Page 2)

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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